Britain waits with bated breath for crucial exit poll verdict as final votes are cast in historic General Election

BRITAIN is waiting with bated breath for the crucial exit poll verdict – as the final polls are cast in the historic General Election.

Both Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are still fighting to win over the final remaining undecided voters just less than an hour before polls slam shut at 10pm.

Farage also jumped in an army vehicle to try to rally support for his campaign in ClactonCredit: Steve Finn

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty arrive to cast their vote at Kirby Sigston Village Hall in Northallerton, North YorkshireCredit: PA

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria arrive to cast their votes at Willingham Close TRA Hall, in LondonCredit: PA

Nigel Farage has been spotted eating an ice cream on the day Brits are set to voteCredit: Reuters

People queue to enter a polling station near Battersea Power StationCredit: Reuters

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey and his wife Emily Gasson arrive to cast their votesCredit: PA

Raphael the Golden Retriever patiently waits for his human to vote in Dunsford, DevonCredit: Alamy

Labour chief Sir Keir is projected to thunder into Downing Street with a landslide while the Tories are fighting to avoid a total rout.

But the final poll of the campaign has Labour five points down from last week at 37% of the vote.

If the Ipsos poll is right, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could win around 13 seats in the Commons.

The poll spells doomsday for the Tories, who stand to get their lowest share of the vote since the 1970s.

Read more about polling day

Voting opened at 7am and will close at 10pm when the official exit poll will give the first indication of the final results.

Sunak arrived first this morning with wife Akshata Murty to cast their vote.

What is the exit poll?

By Harry Goodwin

THE exit poll gives Brits a sniff of the election result just minutes after voting ends.

Interviewers at 133 polling stations across the country will ask voters to fill in a replica ballot paper and put it in a ballot box as they leave.

The pollsters choose a mix of constituencies which best reflect national trends, many of which are marginal seats.

Data collected at polling stations is sent in a secure pipeline to a secret location in London where boffins crunch the numbers.

Their phones are taken away and the room is protected by security guards.

IPSOS UK pollster Michael Clemence told Sky News: “We’re going to be doing over 17,000 interviews on the day.

“We’re dealing with people’s behaviour – we’re not asking people how they intend to vote.

“We’re talking to electors who just voted and asking exactly what they just did.”

The exit poll will come out around 10pm, giving a fairly reliable snapshot of what the overall election result will be like.

It has usually been on the money in recent years – except in 2015, when it predicted a hung parliament only for David Cameron to win a majority.

Number-crunchers also got the result wrong in the 2016 Brexit referendum, when the exit poll suggested Remain had won.

The faulty poll even prompted Brexiteer Nigel Farage to concede defeat on Twitter – before rejoicing at the Leave victory in the morning.

Expert Javier Sajuria told Channel 4: “As polls go, it is probably one of the most reliable.

“Even in 2015, when the polling industry suffered a lot of criticism for their failures to anticipate a Tory majority, the exit poll outperformed everyone else.

“In general, I would say that the UK exit polls have been largely successful, and much better than in other countries.”

Veteran BBC presenter David Dimbleby has revealed the exit poll to the nation following 11 different elections from 1979 to 2019.

Dimbleby said revealing the winner of the election can be a “heart-stopping moment”.

But he caused a stir this week by saying the exit poll is “the worst invention ever”.

Dimbleby told the BBC’s Newscast podcast: “The exit poll is the bane of the broadcaster’s life.

“It’s the worst invention ever brought in – it’s like a thriller and you’re given the answer before we’ve even started on page one.

“The exit poll seems to me entirely detrimental to the excitement of election night.

“It gives people something to talk about until three in the morning when the first serious results flow starts

“But I never liked them. It takes the fun away.”

They arrived in Sunak’s constituency in Northallerton, North Yorkshire, to submit their ballot at Kirby Sigston Village Hall.

Starmer and his wife Victoria arrived a few hours later to cast their votes at Willingham Close TRA Hall, in London.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is fighting to keep his seat in Godalming and Ash today – where polls suggest he’s in the race with Lib Dems.

The Chancellor pleaded with voters to re-elect him as a “strong local voice”.

Watch our election special with Piers Morgan

PIERS Morgan will join our star-studded Never Mind The Ballots panel just moments after the exit poll drops tonight.

Our Political Editor Harry Cole will host the Piers Morgan Uncensored host and a panel of experts at 10.15pm for a snap reaction to the first indication of the election results.

You can watch it live here.

Legendary Sun columnist Piers, who has interviewed Rishi Sunak twice, will give his candid takes on the most important election in a generation.

We’ll be back again at 8am tomorrow to chew over the full results and fallout from the race for No10.

For the very best analysis tune in on The Sun’s YouTube page or thesun.co.uk. You won’t want to miss it.

Writing on X, formerly Twitter, Hunt said: “[I’m] your strong local voice for Godalming Ash… After six weeks of campaigning, that big moment has arrived.”

Meanwhile, former PM Theresa May and ex-chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 committee Sir Graham Brady have been given peerages in the dissolution honours list.

Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, ex-chief whip Julian Smith, ex-Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Scottish secretary Alister Jack have been given knighthoods and ex-Cabinet minister Therese Coffey made a dame.

You can also watch a live edition of Never Mind The Ballots at 10.15pm on our YouTube channel and thesun.co.uk for snap analysis with Harry Cole and guests.

Politicians and activists from all the main parties will be pounding pavements today reminding their supporters to get out and vote.

Watch The Sun’s LIVE election night special TONIGHT as Harry Cole & Piers Morgan give their verdicts

Around a fifth of the electorate are already believed to have voted via post, although disruption at the Royal Mail has meant some people have not received theirs.

The main party leaders will rally their troops one final time today although they are not allowed onto the airwaves because of strict broadcasting rules on Polling Day.

The election could put an end to 14 years of Tory rule after Mr Sunak’s early election gamble failed to revive the party’s fortunes.

Labour’s expected victory is a significant turnaround from five years ago when the party crashed to its worst defeat since 1935 under Jeremy Corbyn.

However, polls have shown Sir Keir’s personal appeal would be among the lowest of any incoming premier.

The final results are likely to show a collapse in Tory support in both the Red Wall seats won by Boris Johnson in 2019, as well as their traditional heartlands in the south.

A ballot box arrives at a voting station in BerkshireCredit: Rex

Jeremy Hunt conducted a public meeting in Godalming and Ash on TuesdayCredit: Reuters

Starmer and Victoria cast their votesCredit: Reuters

Sunak and Akshata leave the polling station after votingCredit: GETTY

Mr Sunak has been under further pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party and Sir Ed Davey’s resurgent Lib Dems.

The Tories have been heavily criticised for running one of the most disastrous campaigns in the party’s history.

It included a string of unforced errors including returning early from the D-Day commemorations and the betting scandal.

He did manage to land some blows on tax and immigration during a series of campaign debates.

Sir Keir has run a cautious campaign and unveiled a manifesto of “no surprises” that pledged not to raise the headline rates of national insurance, income tax or VAT.

There are 650 seats up for grabs in this election – but just a select few will change how Parliament is made up for the next five years.

From Nigel Farage’s thunderbolt return in Clacton to even the PM’s own seat, the one thing we can be certain about is that there are no dead certains once every vote is in.

But it’s not all rosy for Labour either.

Key timings to watch

12.15am

Tory chairman Richard Holden could be the first big beast to lose in his Basildon and Billericay seat

2am

Tory leadership fave Kemi Badenoch is expected to win her new seat of Essex North West

2.45am

Deputy PM Oliver Dowden is fighting to hang on in Hertsmere

3am

Jeremy Corbyn could lose the Islington North seat he has held for 40 years

3.30am

Penny Mordaunt’s Portsmouth North seat is facing an onslaught from Labour and could turn red

3.30am

Jeremy Hunt could become the first sitting Chancellor to be ousted as the Lib Dems eye his Godalming and Ash seat

4am

Nigel Farage will learn whether his eight shot at Parliament is successful in Clacton

4am

Rishi Sunak should win his Yorkshire seat of Richmond and Northallerton – where he might concede the election to Labour

4am

Reform chairman Richard Tice is hoping for victory in Boston and Skegness – the biggest Brexit-voting seat

4.15am

Sir Keir Starmer will comfortably win in Holborn and St Pancras and will be the first time we hear from him

5am

Former PM Liz Truss will learn if she has hung on to Norfolk South West where she is defending a 24,000 majority

Despite expecting a night of sweeping gains, several of their top MPs are under threat from Green or Independent candidates.

Here, we take a look at ten key races that could impact the final results.

ClactonHeld by: ConservativeTarget for: Reform

Typically a Tory safe seat, the entry of Nigel Farage in Clacton electrified not only the local race but the national election campaign.

The Reform leader has tried and failed seven times to become an MP but this time it feels as if the pieces have slotted into place for a milestone victory.

At 60, and having already “retired” from politics once, this may well be Farage’s final shot at Parliament – but as an untested electoral force, there is still a chance the polls are wrong.

Yet the people of Clacton do have form for pivoting from the Tories.

In 2015 they returned Ukip’s Douglas Carswell, a Conservative defector, with Farage’s strong backing.

And with the Brexit champion drawing crowds of nearly 1,000 to campaign rallies, his passage to Westminster may well be secure after falling short so many times.

The Old Fire Station in Hackney, east London, turned into a polling station todayCredit: AFP

Voters started arriving at a polling station in Surrey QuaysCredit: Story Picture Agency

A polling station in Kirby Sigston, England, being set up this morning as polls are now openCredit: Getty

A horse rider with her animal arriving to Holne Polling Station, DevonCredit: SWNS

Monks from Sancta Maria Abbey, in East Lothian, cast their voteCredit: SWNS

Bobby the Cavapoo outside Eton Wick polling station, in Windsor, BerkshireCredit: Rex

Liz Truss, former PM, cast her voteCredit: Twitter/@trussliz

A polling station inside a launderette in OxfordCredit: PA

Richmond and NorthallertonHeld by: ConservativeTarget for: Labour

At any other election, Rishi Sunak would assume that his seat was safe – but the polls have tightened in this corner of true blue North Yorkshire.

His Labour opponent, Tom Wilson, genuinely believes he has a chance at ousting the sitting Prime Minister, something which has never happened before.

And the PM has made seven trips to his constituency so far in this campaign with leaflets promoting the man who lives in No.10 as a “community champion”.

Only one poll has been brave enough to claim Rishi faces the axe, and crucially it would take a 23-point swing to oust him.

Bristol CentralHeld by: LabourTarget for: Green

While it is expected to be a night of Labour gains, there are still a few big hitters under threat from third parties.

Shadow frontbencher Thangam Debbonaire, standing in the new Bristol Central seat, has inherited a large chunk of Green Party voters following boundary re-drawings last year, putting her mega 32 per cent margin at threat.

It means the Greens could double their haul of seats in Parliament, with Sir Keir directing resources from elsewhere in the region to save his at-risk frontbencher.

RochdaleHeld by: Worker’s PartyTarget for: Labour

When George Galloway romped to victory in Rochdale it was a major blow for Sir Keir Starmer, whose stance on Gaza enraged Muslim voters in the typically safe Labour seat.

Even before the party’s candidate Azhar Ali was dropped for anti-semitic comments, polls pointed at a win for the firebrand left-winger.

Though months later, and with ex-journalist Paul Waugh standing for Labour, the party is confident it can reclaim a heartland seat and boot Galloway from Parliament for good.

NuneatonHeld by: ConservativeTarget for: Labour

Seen as a national bellwether, Nuneaton has sided with the party that went on to form the government at every election since 1997.

And unlike some other bellweathers, it’s even spawned a nickname for voters – with parties of all stripes trying to get the ‘Nuneaton woman’ onside.

A win here, in a town packed with working-age families, is considered a gold-ticket indicator of which party is cutting through to the heart of Britain.

And this year is set to be no different, with polls showing Labour 15 points clear in the Warwickshire town.

Bournemouth East and Bournemouth WestHeld by: ConservativeTarget for: Labour

Even at the height of Tony Blair’s powers, neither Bournemouth seat ever drifted to Labour.

So both Tobias Ellwood and Sir Conor Burns would usually assume they had an easy ride back into Parliament.

But this time the pair are projected to both be ousted by Sir Keir’s candidates – with increasing student numbers in the seaside town fundamentally changing the demographics of the electorate.

Ashfield Held by: Reform (elected Conservative)Target for: Labour

Lee Anderson’s high-profile defection to Reform after months of courting gave the insurgent right-wing party its only MP, but the ex-Tory (and even formerly ex-Labour) member could be on his way out.

His Ashfield seat in Nottingham is a two-horse race between Reform and Labour, with the Tories a distant third despite a significant swing to win amid a Red Wall blitz in 2019.

The polling shows that on a night when Nigel Farage’s party make breakthroughs elsewhere in the country, Ashfield could be their only loss.

Last elections: How the Tories gained power

By Jack Elsom, Chief Political Correspondent

2019 – The Brexit election

Boris Johnson called the 2019 general election to break the Commons deadlock over Brexit.

A coalition of Opposition parties and Tory Remainers were blocking his deal from passing and had effectively put the country in limbo.

After purging the Conservatives rebels – and battling Jeremy Corbyn to actually let him trigger the election – the date was set for December 12.

The winter campaign saw Johnson adopt an effective Get Brexit Done slogan while Labour struggled to explain its policy of holding a second referendum.

The result saw the collapse of Labour’s Red Wall fortress of northern seats who switched to back the Tories and helped them win an 80-seat landslide majority.

CON: 365/43.6% LAB: 202/32.1%

2017 – May fluffs it

Theresa May was riding high in the polls in the spring of 2017 when she decided on a walking weekend in Wales to call a snap election.

While commanding a slim majority, she wanted her mandate having inherited No10 from David Cameron after a Tory coronation contest.

But the wheels quickly fell off her presidential-style campaign, resulting in a disastrous press conference where she infamously insisted “nothing has changed!” as her social care policy was ripped to shreds.

It cost her the Tory majority as Jeremy Corbyn performed better than expected, and May was forced to do a confidence and supply deal with the DUP.

CON: 317/42.3% LAB: 262/40%

2015 – Cameron wins majority

David Cameron let his Tory-Lib Dem coalition reach its full five years, resulting in a long 2015 campaign.

He successfully turned on his deputy PM Nick Clegg – blaming them for all the faults of their government and asking voters to help him cut them loose.

It was an effective strategy that saw him clinch a small Tory majority, the first since 1992.

CON: 330/36.1% LAB: 258/29%

2010 – Cameron falls short

After 13 years of New Labour, Gordon Brown was ousted as Prime Minister – but the Tories fell short of an outright majority.

Brown had bottled calling an election in 2007 upon succeeding Blair after letting speculation run and run.

After five days of coalition talks, Cameron forged a deal with Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems.

CON: 306/36.1% LAB: 258/29%

Cannock ChaseHeld by: ConservativeTarget for: Labour

Held by ex-Tory chair Amanda Milling, Labour requires a 25 per cent swing to haul this Warwickshire heartland constituency into the red.

Just north of Birmingham, it is predicted by several pollsters to be the largest Tory to Labour swing tonight,

Labour previously held the seat between 1997 and 2010.

Some metrics indicate the incumbent MP may hold on, albeit with a minuscule majority.

But the fact it takes significant resources to defend is an indicator of the depths of Tory woes in this campaign.

If it falls, Cannock would become symbolic of the sweeping changes across the whole of the UK.

Birmingham LadywoodHeld by: LabourTarget for: Independent

In the West Midlands mayoral election in May, the story of the night was not Labour ousting the respected Andy Street, but rather the surge of support for independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob.

The Lambo-driving influencer scooped 70,000 votes – 11 per cent – after a six-week campaign run almost entirely through social media.

The TikTok star and lawyer has now told constituents in the Muslim-heavy Birmingham Ladywood constituency to pledge “your vote for Gaza” to oust Labour’s Shadow Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood.

Polls show the social media influencer is adrift by 20 points, but with the unknown variant of an independent candidate, the internet star could pull off another shock.

Another facing a threat from the left is Wes Streeting in Ilford South, though the Shadow Health Secretary is expected to comfortably survive.

Hamilton and Clyde ValleyHeld by: SNPTarget for: Labour

With the SNP mired in scandal, Labour’s haul of seats across Scotland is set to surge from two to more than 25,

Hamilton and Clyde Valley is a new seat, but the former Lanark and Hamilton East had been held by the SNP since 2015.

And last time around, Labour slumped to third behind the Conservatives.

So a loss here would pile even more humiliation on SNP chief and Scots First Minister John Swinney.

So no gain would better symbolise Labour’s return to dominance in Scotland than scooping an SNP target from its heartlands after nearly a decade in the wilderness north of the border.