THE FIRST sign of polls tightening emerged today, with one showing Labor holding a six-point lead since March.
After the weekend’s political blitz, Tory MPs will take advantage of a JL Partners poll which shows the gap between Labor and the Conservatives at 12 points.
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British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at today’s Conservative election campaign Credit: Reuters
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Sunak is in a battle with Keir Starmer for the keys to No10Credit: Jeremy Selwyn
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A poll for the left-wing podcast Rest Is Politics has Labor on 40 per cent and the Tories on 28 per cent.
The same company had Labor leading by 18 points in March and by 15 points in May.
With such numbers giving Starmer the keys to a 10th place, morale among Tory MPs is likely to remain low unless the government manages to turn things around quickly.
But in a glimmer of hope for them, JL Partners says “the main reason for this is a shift among the over-65s, with the Conservatives moving from a 10-point lead over Labor to a 20-point lead in this age group.”
They also say reform is on the wane, with less than a quarter of former Conservative voters saying they would consider right-wing challengers – “down 10 points from the start of May when the number was a third.”
However, a separate survey conducted over the bank holiday weekend for Survation shows Labor still leading by 23 points, 47 to 24 points.
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And another tight Redfield and Wilton has Labor ahead by 23 points, with a staggering 46 to the Tories’ 23 per cent.
With big announcements about National Service and efforts to win back the silver voter, Rishi Sunak is looking to keep the 4th of July General Election competitive.
Labor has been leading by double figures for months – but Conservative campaign chiefs have vowed to throw in the kitchen sink to try to close the gap.
Tory strategists also want as many debates as possible between the Prime Minister and opposition hopefuls – with Sunak challenging Sir Keir Starmer for six.
The pair are set to meet for the first time next week in a showdown hosted by ITV.
But Labor is determined to limit the number of one-on-one battles to just two as it tries to preserve its commanding lead in the polls.
JL Partners explained its poll: “While the public still expects Starmer to win (with 51 per cent believing he will be prime minister to Sunak’s 15 per cent), his lead has started to narrow.
“Labour’s lead is now down from a 15-point lead at the start of May and an 18-point lead in April. Despite the tightening, Starmer’s lead on who would make the best prime minister has remained unchanged since early April at a 12-point lead.
“The Conservative coalition in 2019 remains fractured. The Conservatives hold just under half of their voters in 2019, with 14 percent still saying ‘Don’t know.’
“The big change that has happened is among the over-65s. At the start of May, the Tories had a ten-point lead over the over-65s (39 per cent to Labour’s 29 per cent). It is now a 20-point lead: 44 per cent for the Tories and 23 percent for Labor.
“This shift is outside the margin of error and statistically significant. The labor force maintains a significant lead among all other age groups.
“Furthermore, fewer Conservative voters (23 per cent) said they would consider voting for Reform UK, with almost 4 in 10 Reform voters saying they would consider voting Conservative.”
The researchers added: “However, the top emotion in the event of Rishi Sunak winning would be ‘disappointment’ with 9 per cent saying they would be ‘happy’.”
“Even among Conservative voters in 2019, 31 per cent disapprove of Sunak’s performance as Prime Minister. Keir Starmer’s positivity rate is 24 points higher than Sunak’s, with Starmer’s net positivity at +4.
TWO NEW SURVEYS… BUT WHAT DO THEY ACTUALLY SHOW?
Harry Cole, Political Editor
Three polls are down – two showing what we’ve known for months, and one showing movement.
So take your pick, there’s something for everyone.
Labor will say onward to victory, the Tories will say their political assault on national service and pensioners is showing signs of success.
So expect the JL Partners poll to show Labor leading by 12 to be pushed by the war-weary Conservatives.
Given the morale of Tory MPs, some will want to latch on to any small signs that things may yet turn around.
It might seem bizarre to see politicians clinging to a poll that clearly shows their opponents are winning, but the Tories have nothing to cheer about at the moment.
Six weeks to go, but if there are the first signs of a temporary Tory recovery, it could, and a very big one, so be it…
“Labour continues to lead on issues such as the economy, resolving pay and strike disputes – and a host of other issues.
“The NHS has seen a 6 point rise in prominence among Labor voters – with 61 per cent of current Labor voters citing improving the NHS as a (top 3) important issue.
“Conservatives retain leadership on cultural awakening, military, Islamist extremism, migration and small boats.
“The Tories managed to almost pull even on reducing inflation, with 32 per cent naming the Conservatives as best on the issue compared to Labour’s 33 per cent.”
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Rishi Sunak campaigning in DerbyshireCredit: AFP
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Conservative parliamentary candidate Jonathan Gullis welcomes the Prime Minister todayCredit: Getty
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